Measuring inflation (HL only)
Introduction
This lesson looks at how inflation is calculated via a retail or consumer price index. This is best explained by having your classes complete their own price index, based on typical goods and services they purchase.
Enquiry question
How is inflation calculated, using a price index.
Lesson time: 105 minutes
Lesson objectives:
Explain that inflation and deflation are typically measured by calculating a consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by the average household.
Explain that inflation figures may not accurately reflect changes in consumption patterns and the quality of the products purchased.
Explain that economists measure a core/underlying rate of inflation to eliminate the effect of sudden swings in the prices of food and oil, for example.
Explain that a producer price index measuring changes in the prices of factors of production may be useful in predicting future inflation.
Teacher notes:
1. Beginning activity, start with the opening Prezi, which should take 5 minutes to watch and discuss.
2. Processes - technical vocabulary - The students learn the content reading the key terms and activity 1 - allow 15 minutes for this.
3. Research process - activity 2 should take 5 minutes.
4. Application activity - in activity 3 your classes should complete their own price index. For example, I complete one with my first year IB class and we use products selected by them. This includes the price of ice cream in the tuck shop and entrance to their favourite bar and restaurant. Allocate at least 40 minutes for this activity.
5. Developing the theory - activities 4 and 5 (20 minutes)
6. Practise activities - activities 6 and 7 are both short answer responses and should only 10 minutes.
7. Reflection activity - Finish the lesson with the paper one style question. (10 minutes)
Key terms:
Consumer price index (CPI) - measures changes in the price level of market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.
Producer price index (PPI) - a price index that measures the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output.
Weighted price index - the weights attached to a price index which reflect the spending patterns of households in the nation. The greater the proportion of disposable income used consume a product, the higher the good or service is weighted.
Core / underlying inflation - represents the change in the costs of goods and services but does not include those from the food and energy sectors. This measure of inflation excludes these items because their prices are much more volatile.
The activities on this page are available as a PDF handout at: Calculating inflation
Beginning activity
Start by watching the following presentation on inflation, which describes how inflation is calculated using an index: Inflation
Activity 1: Price indexes
Watch the following short video and then answer the questions that follow:
(a) How is inflation measured?
Using an index e.g. the CPI which measures the % change in the average price of all the goods and services in the representative consumer basket.
(b) Why do price indexes assign a weight to each item in the basket?
To recognise the relative proportion of disposable income spent on each product in the basket. e.g. in CPI, housing is assigned a much larger weight than a toothbrush because a much larger % of an average Americans income is spent on housing. The video states that a rise in the price of housing is far more significant than an increase in the price of toothbrushes.
(c) Why do we use an index, rather than raw numbers when calculating inflation?
The CPI and other price indexes use an index to make it much easier to read and evaluate e.g. in 1973 the CPI was at 44.425 and one year later had risen to 49.317. This represented a 11.01% change in the size of the index so it is easier to express 1973 as a base year of 100 and then 1974 as 111.01.
(d) During the 1980s inflation in the USA fell significantly and has remained low since then. In 2010 average prices fell further, briefly falling below zero. Explain the difference between the fall in average prices in 1980 with the price fall in 2010?
In 1980 the nation experienced a fall in the rate of inflation (disinflation) whereas in 2010 the country experienced deflation - when average prices were falling.
Activity 2: Inflation in USA
The USA government measures 9 categories of goods and services in its inflation measurement. What are these categories? You can research this online at the Bureau of Labour Statistics, which can be accessed at: Labour statistics. Perhaps you can also think of other categories which are not included but you think should be?
In the US this basket of goods and services is measured by the CPI or consumer price index. It includes the following categories although items in each category are regularly updated.
- Food and beverages (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks).
- Housing (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture).
- Apparel (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewellery).
- Transportation (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance).
- Medical care (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services).
- Recreation (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions).
- Education and communication (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories).
- Other goods and services (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).
- Government-charged user fees (water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls. In addition, the CPI includes taxes (such as sales and excise taxes) that are directly associated with the prices of specific goods and services.
Activity 3: Devise your own consumer price index
Either in groups or as a class write down 10 items commonly purchased by students in your IB class. These should be specific items e.g. a pair of imported luxury shoes, the price of a bus ticket to and from school, the price of a can of coke in the school canteen e.t.c.
Now assign a weighting to each item, outlining the % of student's income that is spent on those items - clothing, transport, entertainment, food and drink e.t.c.
Now compare the prices of these items with the same items one year ago. Calculate the % change in these items. For each item multiple the weighting by the % change in price. Divide your answer by 100 to get an IB student price index.
1. How accurate is your calculation? Does it reflect the rise in your cost of living in your experience?
2. How easy was it to agree with your class / group on the items to include in the basket and the weighting attached to each item?
3. What problems did you encounter in calculating your index?
Activity 4: How accurate are price indexes at measuring the rate of inflation
(a) Explain how the CPI (or other price indexes) account for the significant differences in the consumption patterns of different households e.g. young v old consumers, the consumption patterns of wealthy households v low income households.
They do not, price indexes measure the average.
(b) Provide an example of the difficulties associated with assigning a weight to a particular good or service.
A good example would be rent. For some people, e.g. young people living with their parents or middle aged people who own their own property, none of their monthly income is spent on rent. A rise in rental prices has no impact on their cost of living. For a young person, earning a small salary and paying rent in a city centre however, the rise in rental prices has a much larger impact on their cost of living.
(c) Explain how the consumer price index reflects changes in consumer patterns for goods and services over time.
On a periodic basis, the products selected and the weighting attached to each good and service in the basket is reviewed. For instance 10 years ago, one item in the basket would have been the price of renting film DVDs, but now this item is rarely purchased. As a result this item will have disappeared from the basket of goods and services measured. By contrast other items, such as the price of film downloads or a monthly internet packet for a mobile phone will have been added to the basket.
(d) How does the CPI account for changes in product quality over time.
This is not considered, for instance Samsung or Apple smart phone are included in the modern day basket of good and services, yet these bear no resemblance with earlier models of telephones.
(e) What goods and services does the CPI not cover?
Being a measure of changes to consumer prices, the CPI does not include investment items, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and life insurance as these items relate to savings and not to day-to-day consumption expenses. The consumer price index also does not calculate changes to the price of the factors of production, which reflect the changing costs to businesses. Instead these are measured by a different set of indexes such as the commodity price index, which calculates the changes to raw material prices in the economy or a large number of other traded commodity indexes.
(f) Why do economists sometimes prefer to exclude food and fuel from their inflation calculations (core / underlying) inflation.
This measure of inflation excludes these items because their prices are much more volatile and not an accurate reflection of general price movements throughout the economy.
Activity 5: Producer price index
The following video explains the PPI, the producer price index index which calculates the rate of change in the input prices paid by producers.
(a) What is the PPI?
It measures commodity and labour prices e.t.c. and includes the core items.
(b) How do businesses use the PPI in their decision making?
It helps businesses make better performed decisions e.g. contract adjustment and forecasting, stock control e.t.c.
(c) The following table illustrates the historical link between the CPI and PPI indexes. Summarise this relationship.
Unsurprisingly both indexes mirror each other, as a change in the prices produced by businesses will always be passed onto the consumer in the long term.
Activity 6: Calculating inflation
Calculate the rate of inflation from the following information:
Item | Price in January 2021 = 100 | Price in January 2022 | % of household income spent on the item | Weighting | Weighting x % change in price |
Price of weekly shopping, including food and cleaning items | 100 | 125 | 15 | 15 | 25% (change in prices) x 15 (weighting) = 375 |
Cost of new and second hand cars, a full tank of petrol, car tax, insurance and annual certificate. Train and bus travel | 100 | 100 | 18 | 18 | 0% (change in prices) x 18 (weighting) = 0 |
Clothing and footwear | 100 | 90 | 7 | 7 | -10% (change in prices) x 7 (weighting) (70) |
Housing costs including mortgage payments, rent, property taxes, gas, water, electricity and monthly internet bill | 100 | 135 | 35 | 35 | 1225 |
Entertainment including the average price of a restaurant meal with a glass of house wine | 100 | 110 | 10 | 10 | 100 |
School fees (including university tuition fees and books) | 100 | 150 | 5 | 5 | 250 |
Other including holidays and one off items | 100 | 80 | 10 | 10 | (200) |
Total | - | - | - | - | 1680 |
Total (1680) / Total weighting (100) = 16.8%, meaning that in the example above the rate of inflation was 16.8%
Activity 7: A comparison of inflation rates by country
Country | Inflation rate 2021 % | Inflation rate 2022 % |
UAE | -1.1 | - 0.1 |
Saudi Arabia | 2 | 2.3 |
Japan | 1.2 | 2.5 |
Germany | 7.3 | 7.4 |
Eurozone | 7.4 | 7.4 |
USA | 8.5 | 8.3 |
UK | 7 | 9 |
China | 1.5 | 2.1 |
Brazil | 11.3 | 12.13 |
Russia | 16.7 | 17.8 |
Turkey | 61 | 76 |
Venezuela | 2,972 | 1,550 |
(a) How many nations in the table are experiencing disinflation?
USA and surprisingly so too is Venezuela.
(b) Which nations are experiencing deflation?
Just one - UAE.
(c) Compare the problems of deflation/stagnation inflation with the high inflation countries of Turkey and Venezuela? What may account for these differences in inflation rates?
Hint:
Neither deflation / stagnant inflation or rapid inflation is ideal. Countries with very low (or negative) inflation may experience a fall in the following areas of the economy:
- investment levels
- consumption
- consumer confidence.
By contrast the Turkey and Venezuela are likely to be faced with different problems. Both nations are experiencing severe economic difficulties, brought on in large part by a collapse in the value of their national currency, which has placed inflationary pressures on the economy.
Activity 8: Link to the assessment
An example of a paper 1 question on inflation:
(a) Explain some of the difficulties associated wth accurately measuring the rate of inflation. [10 marks]
Command term: Explain
Key terms: Inflation
Some of the difficulties associated with measuring the rate of inflation include:
The weighting of goods and services highlights one of the problems of calculating inflation. Inflation is measured as an average where as of course there are significant differences in the consumption patterns of different households.
A second difficulty with calculating inflation is in the way that the consumer price index reflects changes in consumer patterns for goods and services over time. For instance 5 years ago, one item in the basket would have been the price of renting film DVDs, but now this item is rarely purchased. By contrast other items, such as the price of film downloads or a monthly internet packet for a mobile phone will have been added to the basket.
A third difficulty includes possible errors in calculation which can effect all statistical calculations. Errors can arise from the day in which prices were calculated as prices will change from one day to another, as well as from one shop or market to another. This is especially true of food prices which change depending on the season.
A fourth difficulty is that different nations measure their inflation rate in different ways. Some countries include mortgage payments in their calculations, for example, while others do not. This makes it difficult to compare different inflation rates between nations.
Differences in the quality of products may also impact on the accuracy of inflation statistics. In all probability a Samsung or Apple smart phone is included in the modern day basket of good and services. Yet, smart phones did not exist even ten years ago so it is impossible to measure the change in the prices of those items.
Modern cars and other technology are also difficult to compare with previous time periods as the modern day versions of the goods are in every way superior to the earlier models they can be compared to.
(b) Using real world examples, evaluate the view that the best result for an economy is a low and stable rate of inflation. [15 marks]
In answering this question responses should include the following:

An explanation of how a low and stable inflation rate causes greater certainty for a business. This encourages entrepreneurs to investment in new plant and machinery and also encourages overseas investment. Consumption and economic activity are also likely to flourish.
The impact of a low inflation rate on exporters, for example a low rate of inflation makes domestic goods more competitive in overseas markets and imported goods less competitive.
A recognition that fixed income earners, including those retired people dependent on a pension income, are less at risk from falling real wage levels and that saving is also encouraged. A low rate of inflation also has social benefits because trade unions are less likely to go on strike because low inflation means that real wage levels are better protected.
On the other hand, the response needs to recognise that low inflation can also have a negative impact on some of the other economic indicators such as unemployment and economic growth. For example as the AD / AS diagram illustrates, when low inflation is the result of falling AD, there can be accompanied by a reduction in real output levels from Y1 to Y2. Similarly, according to some economists there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, at least in the short term, represented by the Phillips curve, making it difficult to combine both low and stable inflation with low unemployment.
This implies that rather than maintaining a low and stable rate of inflation, however desirable this might be, might not be possible if governments choose to instead to focus on policies aimed at growth and higher employment.
An example of this can be witnessed in modern day Turkey, a nation with one of the highest rates of inflation in the world, as the government has abandoned any attempt to control average prices and instead prioritise growth policies.
Alternatively a real life example might include nations that have successfuly maintained a low rate of inflation over a period of time e.g. EU, USA and the UK. For example, a response might discuss the role of the European central bank in maintaining a low rate of interest throughout the Eurozone.
The response should conclude with a consideration of both the long-term and short- term consequences of a sustained period of low inflation, as well as the impact on different stakeholders - creditors, debtors, businesses, customers, exporters and the government, to reach an effective conclusion.